Economic Insights

Canadian interest rates have shown some volatile tendencies of late, but the most recent trend is upwards. Since all of our recession-watch interest rate ratios are and remain inverted, we expect to see deteriorating economic fundamentals occur in Canada over the ensuing twelve months. [more]

October traditionally marks the start of a seven month positive period for the general market. Of course, there are always exceptions. However, this year, October has been exceptional with the S&P 500 Index beginning the month of November at an all-time high. [more]

Canadian interest rates rose sharply last week while U.S. rates stayed fairly constant. Spreads in both countries widened, moving away from Inversion. This lessens the possibility of an Economic Recession occurring in the USA. Canada is already on Recession Watch. [more]

There was a sharp rise in interest rates in the final two days of last week. This moved key yield curve ratios away from Inversion levels and resulted in the Recession Barometer in the USA falling to 8.0x from 9.0x. Canada went on a recession Count-Down as of August 8. [more]

Most of the yield curve ratio combinations that we follow weakened this past week. However, the most important metric, the 10-year/2-year ratio, actually widened. We will continue to monitor closely U.S. interest rate developments and yield spreads. [more]

The eResearch Recession Barometer for Canada is already in Count-Down mode for a possible Economic Recession occurring within the next 15 to 20 months. All of our key recession-watch yield curve ratios are inverted and are steepening. Does the market know what the current positive economic indicators do not? [more]

The eResearch Recession Barometer rose this past week for the U.S., such that it may yet join Canada in a Count-Down to a possible Economic Recession. [more]

In the US, yields for maturities one year and out all rose dramatically last week. No change for Canada. [more]