Earlier this week, we posted an excerpt of an interview between Financial Sense and David Rosenberg of Gluskin Sheff. Mr. Rosenberg laid out his arguments as to why there could be a recession starting in the United States in 2019.
The brouhaha that erupted at the end of March/beginning of April about USA yields recording an inversion and, therefore, a recession is a certainty belies a more rational analysis. The inversion in question reflects the short-lived 10-year yield falling below the 3-month yield. It reversed this past week. The 10Y/3M is but one of many yield comparisons that could be made. Indeed, the 5-year/2-year yield comparison shows that an inversion has been in place since March2.
You can access this week’s full report on the spread of the 10-year/2-year yield curve here … … RB_040519
