David Rosenberg, chief economist and strategist at Gluskin Sheff, says the odds of a U.S. recession in 2019 are rising and are probably much higher than the consensus expects.
Mr. Rosenberg says, “It is interesting that people will say, well, the New York Fed probability model is only 25%. (See chart below.) I can breathe easy. But, normally, recessions start when that index gets between 30% and 40%. It never gets to 100%. So, if you normalize it, in fact, it is telling you that we have a three-in-four chance of seeing a recession, not next year, but this year.”
You can access the article (an excerpt) from Financial Sense : … … HERE
